Headset, the leading provider of data and analytics to the cannabis industry, announced the launch of a long-term forecast for the U.S. and Canadian markets with category and top-level data to be updated at the end of each quarter. The comprehensive forecasts provide legal cannabis market participants and observers with valuable insights into the world’s largest and fastest-growing cannabis markets.
The U.S. and Canada market forecasts will encompass all jurisdictions with any level of legalization across recreational and medical markets. The data will always incorporate the previous, current and following calendar years and be presented in aggregate for each calendar year. With Headset’s new methodology, forecasts will cover at least five quarters (15 months) and at most eight quarters (24 months).
To date, key insights from the Overall Market View reveal:
- Both the U.S. and Canada markets are forecast to grow through 2021 and into 2022
- Canadian cannabis sales will reach $4B this year, significantly lower than the U.S. market’s projected $23B in annual sales
- Canada’s cannabis market is expected to grow twice as fast as the U.S. market between 2020 and 2021 and almost three times faster from 2021 to 2022
Headset’s category market view focuses on each country separately, providing insights into the individual market structures and predictions for how trends in each category might develop going forward. All forecasts are dependent on current levels of legalization and regulations, which are subject to change.
To date, key insights from the Category Market View reveal:
- In the U.S., flower accounts for a majority of total annual sales, reaching roughly $11B in 2021 with projected growth to $12B in 2022
- Although flower is the most popular product category in both markets, vapor pens, edibles and concentrates hold more market share in the U.S. than they do in Canada across 2020, 2021 and 2022
- In both markets, concentrates and edibles are estimated to have slightly larger market shares in 2022 at the expense of flower and pre-rolls
- Between 2020 and 2021, flower represented 50% of the total sales volume growth in the U.S. but will contribute less than 40% from 2021 to 2022.
- Flower share in the Canadian market will fall slightly in 2021, from 57.6% in 2020 to 54.2%, but remain stable in 2022.
- Pre-roll sales will contribute approximately 20% to Canada’s total sales volume growth in 2022 for a 2% increase from the prior year